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Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T17:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43839/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43869/1
Model Inputs:
2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=872.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:26Z
2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=1084.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T19:56Z
2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=924.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2026-01-08T20:22Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-10T21:19Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =15.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-10T10:52Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-11T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 25.90 hour(s)
Difference: -1.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-09T17:42Z

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